I still remember sitting in my living room back in 2016, watching the NBA Draft unfold with that particular mix of anticipation and skepticism that only basketball enthusiasts can understand. We were witnessing what many analysts called one of the deepest draft classes in recent memory, with potential franchise-changing talents at every turn. Fast forward to today, and it's fascinating to see how these players' careers have diverged in ways nobody could have perfectly predicted. Some became superstars, others solid rotation players, while a few unfortunately faded into basketball obscurity. What strikes me most is how their journeys reflect the unpredictable nature of professional sports – where raw talent meets circumstance, coaching, and sometimes just plain luck.
Looking back at that draft class, Ben Simmons going first overall to Philadelphia felt like the safest pick at the time. I recall thinking he had all the tools to become the next great point forward, drawing comparisons to a young LeBron James with his unique combination of size and playmaking. While he's shown flashes of brilliance – making three All-Star teams and leading the league in steals during the 2019-2020 season – his career has been somewhat disappointing relative to those sky-high expectations. The shooting struggles that critics pointed to in college never really improved, and his playoff performances have been particularly underwhelming. Still, at just 26 years old, he's now with Brooklyn and theoretically has time to turn things around, though I'm becoming increasingly skeptical about him ever reaching his full potential.
Brandon Ingram, selected second by the Lakers, has developed into exactly the kind of scoring machine many of us projected. I've always been particularly high on players with his combination of length and shooting touch, and he hasn't disappointed. His transformation after being traded to New Orleans was remarkable to watch – he won Most Improved Player in 2020 and made his first All-Star appearance that same year. What impresses me most is how he's expanded his game beyond just scoring, becoming a more willing and capable passer while showing improved defensive awareness. At 25, he's just entering his prime years, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him make a few more All-Star teams before his career is done.
The real gem of that draft, in my opinion, was Boston's selection of Jaylen Brown at number three. I'll admit I had some reservations about his offensive polish coming out of California, but he's shattered every expectation. His development has been a masterclass in player growth – each season he's added something new to his game, whether it's ball-handling, playmaking, or defensive versatility. Making two All-Star appearances and helping lead Boston to the NBA Finals last season has cemented his status as one of the league's premier two-way wings. What I admire most about Brown is his work ethic – you can see the deliberate nature of his improvement year after year.
The later picks tell equally interesting stories. Malcolm Brogdon going 36th to Milwaukee was one of the biggest steals – he won Rookie of the Year and has developed into a reliable starting guard. Pascal Siakam at 27th overall has exceeded all expectations, winning a championship with Toronto and making two All-Star teams. Meanwhile, some highly-touted prospects like Dragan Bender (4th) and Kris Dunn (5th) never quite found their footing in the league despite their physical tools.
What's particularly fascinating to me is watching how some of these players have developed internationally after their NBA journeys. Just last month, I was following the Philippine Basketball Association's Commissioner's Cup, where Calvin Oftana – while not from the 2016 NBA draft class – demonstrated the kind of growth that reminds me of how draft prospects can evolve in different environments. Oftana's remarkable performance positioned him among the statistical leaders in the Best Player of the Conference race, averaging around 18 points and 8 rebounds per game while shooting an impressive 42% from three-point territory. His upcoming Gilas stint comes on the heels of this breakout performance, showing how players can flourish when given the right opportunity and system. It makes me wonder how some of those 2016 draft picks who struggled in the NBA might have developed in different professional environments overseas.
Reflecting on the 2016 class seven years later, what stands out to me is how difficult projecting NBA success truly is. The top three picks have all become quality players, but only Brown has truly exceeded expectations. The middle of the first round produced several solid rotation players like Domantas Sabonis (11th) and Caris LeVert (20th), while the second round yielded gems like Malcolm Brogdon. What I've come to appreciate more over time is that draft position matters less than fit, development system, and the player's own work ethic. The success stories from this class typically found organizations that believed in them and put them in positions to succeed.
As I look at today's NBA landscape, the 2016 draft class has left an indelible mark on the league. These players are now in their mid-to-late twenties, entering their physical primes and taking on leadership roles for their respective teams. The class may not have produced a generational superstar, but it provided the league with numerous All-Stars and quality starters who have shaped the competitive balance of the last several seasons. If there's one lesson I've taken from following these careers, it's that development isn't linear – players can make leaps at different stages of their careers, and sometimes changing environments can unlock potential that wasn't visible in their early years. The stories of the 2016 draft class are still being written, and I'm curious to see what the next chapter holds for these players as they continue to evolve and adapt their games.
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