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Analyzing the Biggest Winners and Surprises From the NBA 2020 Draft

Looking back at the 2020 NBA Draft, I can't help but feel it was one of those transitional moments that don't fully reveal their significance until years later. Having followed draft classes for over a decade now, what strikes me about this particular group isn't just the obvious talent at the top, but how certain teams managed to find value in places others overlooked. The Minnesota Timberwolves selecting Anthony Edwards first overall felt like the safest pick at the time, but what's fascinating is how many franchises found their cornerstone players outside the lottery picks. I remember watching Tyrese Haliburton slide to twelfth overall and thinking Sacramento had pulled off the steal of the draft—a prediction that's aged remarkably well given his All-Star ascension in Indiana.

The comparison that comes to mind when analyzing these draft successes reminds me of something I observed in international basketball circles. There's a parallel here with how teams sometimes underestimate developing talent until circumstances force them to reveal their full potential. I'm reminded of coach Tim Cone's comments about the Blackwater team in the PBA, where he noted how Barefield and David had been in and out of the lineup, only showing their true capabilities when they finally played substantial minutes together. "I think we are kinda underrating Blackwater because Barefield and David have been playing major minutes and they have been in and out of the line-up. [The game against Rain or Shine] was really the first game they kinda played together, but they came off the bench," Cone observed. This phenomenon of undervalued assets suddenly clicking mirrors what we saw with several 2020 draft picks who took time to find their footing before exploding into significance.

Take Desmond Bane for instance. Memphis trading up to grab him at 30th overall now looks like absolute genius, but at the time, many analysts had him pegged as just another solid college shooter. I'll admit I was among those who didn't see his All-Star potential—his wingspan measurements and improved ball-handling during his rookie season completely transformed his trajectory. The Grizzlies development staff deserves enormous credit here, but there's also something to be said about Bane's own work ethic that allowed him to increase his scoring average from 9.2 points as a rookie to over 21 points per game by his third season. That kind of leap is rare, even for first-round picks.

Then there's the curious case of Tyrese Maxey falling to 21st overall. I distinctly remember the draft night chatter suggesting he might go somewhere between picks 10-15, but when Philadelphia landed him that late, it felt like Daryl Morey had pulled off daylight robbery. Maxey's combination of blistering speed and improved shooting—he jumped from 30% to 43% from three-point range between his first and second seasons—made him the perfect complement to Joel Embiid. What's particularly impressive is how he adapted when Philadelphia needed him to play more point guard after the Ben Simmons situation, averaging nearly 21 points and 4.5 assists in his third season. That's the kind of flexibility you rarely see from players who were supposedly "one-dimensional" coming out of college.

The international picks from this draft deserve special mention too. Denver selecting Nikola Jokić in the second round back in 2014 was the ultimate international steal, but the 2020 draft had its own hidden gem in Utah's selection of Leandro Bolmaro at 23rd overall—though his journey has been more complicated. What fascinates me about international prospects is how their development trajectories differ from NCAA products. They often spend additional years overseas before transitioning to the NBA, creating this delayed evaluation period that can either reveal hidden value or expose misjudgments.

Looking at the biggest surprises, Patrick Williams going fourth to Chicago raised eyebrows at the time. While he's shown flashes of the two-way potential that made him so intriguing, his progression has been more gradual than some expected—averaging around 10 points and 4 rebounds through his first three seasons. Meanwhile, players selected after him like Isaac Okoro and Obi Toppin have had similarly developmental paths, reminding us that the draft is as much about fit and development systems as it is about raw talent.

The second round of this draft produced several rotation players who've outperformed their draft positions dramatically. I'm particularly high on what the Knicks found with Immanuel Quickley at 25th overall—his immediate impact as a scorer and defender made him one of the most valuable non-lottery picks. His progression reminds me of those players who just need the right system to thrive, much like Cone's observation about Blackwater's pieces finally clicking when given consistent minutes together.

What stands out most about the 2020 class in retrospect is how many teams found foundational pieces outside the top 10 selections. In an average draft, you might get 2-3 legitimate stars from picks 11-30, but this class has produced at least 5-6 players who look like they could be long-term starters or All-Stars. The depth of talent, particularly in the guard position, has made this one of the more valuable drafts of the past decade, even if it lacked the singular transcendent talent of a Zion Williamson or Luka Dončić.

As I reflect on this draft class now approaching what should be their prime years, the lesson seems to be that organizational development systems and patience matter as much as draft position. The success stories from this class largely came from situations where teams identified specific skill sets that fit their culture and gave those players room to grow through mistakes. The biggest winners weren't necessarily the teams with the highest picks, but those who understood how to identify and develop the right kind of talent for their specific needs. That's a draft philosophy that seems obvious in theory but proves incredibly difficult in practice—which is why when teams get it right, like Memphis with Bane or Philadelphia with Maxey, the rewards can reshape a franchise's trajectory for years to come.

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